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I’m continuing a series of broad review papers on quantum computing after Disentangling quantum emulation and quantum simulation that I published in January 2023.
In this new essay, I try to answer a very commonplace question or wisdom: will Moore’s law be also applicable for quantum computing. The answer is: yes and no! And in quantum computing, there’s an ongoing challenge to assemble both quality qubits and a large number of these qubits. And there’s so much entanglement between various figures of merits and quantum+classical technologies plus such a zoo of different types of qubits that a simplistic exponential regression like Moore’s law is hard to make. On top of that, Moore’s law was rapidly applicable for chipsets that were of practical use and contributed to the birth and rapid expansion of the personal computer market, then to the Internet and the smartphone and all things connected from supercomputers, cloud data-centers down to the tiniest connected objects. Here, with quantum computers, we have not passed the threshold of real utility and the economical drive that did fuel Moore’s law is not yet at play.
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Nous sommes au milieu d’un battage médiatique autour de l’informatique quantique, avec des affirmations excessives sur le potentiel de l’informatique quantique, des exagérations de la part de nombreux fournisseurs et même de certains organismes de recherche, et une frénésie de financement pour des start-ups dont le niveau de préparation technologique est très faible. Les gouvernements contribuent à alimenter cette « hype » avec leurs grandes initiatives quantiques et leurs quêtes de souveraineté technologique.
Les hypes ne sont pas mauvaises en soi puisqu’elles créent une émulation, stimulent les innovations et contribuent à attirer de nouveaux talents. Cela fonctionne lorsque les scientifiques et les fournisseurs apportent des progrès et des innovations de manière continue après un pic d’attentes. Elle échoue lorsque les surpromesses et l’absence de résultats perdurent trop longtemps. Elle peut réduire le financement de la recherche et de l’innovation à moyen et long terme.
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We are in the midst of quantum hype with some excessive claims of quantum computing potential, many vendors’ and even some research organizations’ exaggerations, and a funding frenzy for very low technology readiness level startups. Governments are contributing to this hype with their large quantum initiatives and their technology sovereignty aspirations.
Technology hypes are not bad per se since they create emulation, drive innovations and contribute to attracting new talents. It works as scientists and vendors deliver progress and innovation on a continuous basis after a so-called peak of expectations. It fails with exaggerated overpromises and underdeliveries that last too long. It can cut short research and innovation funding in the mid to long term creating some sort of quantum winter.
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